What happened
Markets showed mixed performance as concerns about AI spending and the durability of the AI trade weighed on technology and chip stocks, while investors rotated toward Treasury bonds and defensive sectors. Headlines also highlighted emerging AI-related cybersecurity needs and banks restricting AI-agent access, alongside questions about monetizing AI models and demand for AI infrastructure. The portfolio gained 0.4% today but remains down 4.5% since inception, behind 6 of 10 listed indexes.
What we did
- Sell of IONQ, 7.584106 shares at $30.92 at the open. Why: The supplied 20-day return is -30.7%, breaching the explicit -30% exit condition. The price-based thesis has failed; exit the entire position.
- Add of ASML, 0.4763 shares at $1,550.48 at the open. Why: Reported EUV machines sold out through 2028 provide concrete demand visibility despite the sector selloff. Increase the small holding moderately while retaining cash against broader AI financing uncertainty.
- Queued for the next open: ADD SNOW, about $645.38. Why: Three consecutive quarters of accelerating product revenue growth provide operating evidence of AI-driven demand. Increase the small position moderately; the recent rebound alone is not the reason to buy.
- Exit checks against our own stated exit conditions: 16 intact (PLTR, NVDA, TSM, GOOG, NOW, ASML, AMD, AMZN, SHOP, SNOW, META, DDOG, AAPL, MSFT, QCOM, MNDY).
Review
Portfolio value $24,796.67 (-4.5% since inception, +0.4% today), cash 14.6% of NAV. Benchmarks since inception: SPY -2.4%, QQQ -6.2%, DIA +1.0%, IWM -1.1%, URTH -1.9%, ACWI -2.5%, VGK +0.3%, EEM -7.2%, SMH -12.6%, AIQ -6.5%.
Beating 4 of 10 indexes since inception.
Open positions against their thesis:
- PLTR: -5.9% vs cost, 17.1% of NAV; exit if: company results show contracting commercial revenue or management cuts guidance because enterprise AI demand weakens.
- NVDA: -8.0% vs cost, 11.5% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because AI infrastructure customers cancel or defer orders.
- TSM: -0.8% vs cost, 11.3% of NAV; exit if: TSM cuts its current-quarter guidance or reports a material deterioration in AI-related demand.
- GOOG: -8.8% vs cost, 9.3% of NAV; exit if: enterprise Gemini adoption contracts or management reports material AI-driven erosion of its core business.
- NOW: +7.3% vs cost, 7.5% of NAV; exit if: subsequent results show declining enterprise adoption or management cuts guidance because AI products fail to convert into revenue.
- ASML: -4.8% vs cost, 5.3% of NAV; exit if: management reduces capacity expansion plans or guidance because advanced-chip equipment demand materially deteriorates.
- AMD: -8.8% vs cost, 5.2% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its AI-chip revenue outlook because customers cancel orders or choose competing products.
- AMZN: -5.5% vs cost, 4.9% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud revenue outlook because enterprise demand or AI workload growth materially weakens.
- SHOP: -2.9% vs cost, 3.6% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its growth outlook because merchant demand weakens, or reports contracting merchant activity.
- SNOW: -11.8% vs cost, 2.9% of NAV; exit if: management cuts product revenue guidance because customer consumption or enterprise adoption weakens.
- META: -10.6% vs cost, 2.5% of NAV; exit if: management reports sustained deterioration in operating profitability attributable to AI spending without corresponding revenue gains.
- DDOG: -8.1% vs cost, 1.5% of NAV; exit if: results show declining enterprise customer adoption or management cuts revenue guidance because usage weakens.
- AAPL: +3.3% vs cost, 1.2% of NAV; exit if: Apple Silicon loses support for major local AI deployments or management reports weakening demand tied to its AI product strategy.
- MSFT: -2.0% vs cost, 0.9% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud outlook because AI demand disappoints or reports sustained deterioration in AI-service adoption.
- QCOM: +0.2% vs cost, 0.5% of NAV; exit if: a subsequent licensing ruling materially restricts Qualcomm's ability to sell its newest chip designs.
- MNDY: +19.8% vs cost, 0.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because enterprise customer adoption or retention deteriorates.
Closed trades in the last 30 days:
- 2026-10-23: SELL IONQ, 7.584106 shares, realized -$68.03.
Not investment advice.