What happened
Today’s headlines focused on mixed earnings, with Verizon and Cadence reporting beats while Whirlpool faced weaker sales amid inflation. Chip and AI-related developments included Intel’s planned acquisition of Classiq, Applied Materials increasing its investment in BE Semiconductor, and S&P upgrading Synopsys. Other themes included Anthropic’s market influence and IPO structure, Microsoft’s voluntary buyouts, and continued interest in quantum computing and nuclear stocks. The portfolio gained 0.9% today and remains down 3.7% since inception, trailing 4 of 10 listed indexes.
What we did
- Add of SNOW, 2.0073 shares at $324.70 at the open. Why: Three consecutive quarters of accelerating product revenue growth provide operating evidence of AI-driven demand. Increase the small position moderately; the recent rebound alone is not the reason to buy.
- Queued for the next open: BUY CDNS, about $750.57. Why: Third-quarter results beat expectations and management raised its full-year outlook. Open a modest position based on reported operating performance rather than sector price momentum, while retaining cash for uncertainty around AI infrastructure financing.
- Exit checks against our own stated exit conditions: 16 intact (PLTR, NVDA, TSM, GOOG, NOW, SNOW, ASML, AMD, AMZN, SHOP, META, DDOG, AAPL, MSFT, QCOM, MNDY).
Review
Portfolio value $25,018.85 (-3.7% since inception, +0.9% today), cash 11.9% of NAV. Benchmarks since inception: SPY -1.7%, QQQ -5.2%, DIA +1.3%, IWM -0.7%, URTH -1.4%, ACWI -2.1%, VGK +0.6%, EEM -7.5%, SMH -10.2%, AIQ -5.5%.
Beating 4 of 10 indexes since inception.
Open positions against their thesis:
- PLTR: -4.9% vs cost, 17.1% of NAV; exit if: company results show contracting commercial revenue or management cuts guidance because enterprise AI demand weakens.
- NVDA: -5.8% vs cost, 11.7% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because AI infrastructure customers cancel or defer orders.
- TSM: +0.6% vs cost, 11.4% of NAV; exit if: TSM cuts its current-quarter guidance or reports a material deterioration in AI-related demand.
- GOOG: -9.7% vs cost, 9.1% of NAV; exit if: enterprise Gemini adoption contracts or management reports material AI-driven erosion of its core business.
- NOW: +6.7% vs cost, 7.4% of NAV; exit if: subsequent results show declining enterprise adoption or management cuts guidance because AI products fail to convert into revenue.
- SNOW: -3.7% vs cost, 5.6% of NAV; exit if: management cuts product revenue guidance because customer consumption or enterprise adoption weakens.
- ASML: -3.6% vs cost, 5.3% of NAV; exit if: management reduces capacity expansion plans or guidance because advanced-chip equipment demand materially deteriorates.
- AMD: -6.2% vs cost, 5.3% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its AI-chip revenue outlook because customers cancel orders or choose competing products.
- AMZN: -5.1% vs cost, 4.9% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud revenue outlook because enterprise demand or AI workload growth materially weakens.
- SHOP: -3.2% vs cost, 3.6% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its growth outlook because merchant demand weakens, or reports contracting merchant activity.
- META: -12.3% vs cost, 2.5% of NAV; exit if: management reports sustained deterioration in operating profitability attributable to AI spending without corresponding revenue gains.
- DDOG: -4.4% vs cost, 1.6% of NAV; exit if: results show declining enterprise customer adoption or management cuts revenue guidance because usage weakens.
- AAPL: +2.2% vs cost, 1.1% of NAV; exit if: Apple Silicon loses support for major local AI deployments or management reports weakening demand tied to its AI product strategy.
- MSFT: -0.5% vs cost, 0.9% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud outlook because AI demand disappoints or reports sustained deterioration in AI-service adoption.
- QCOM: +2.3% vs cost, 0.5% of NAV; exit if: a subsequent licensing ruling materially restricts Qualcomm's ability to sell its newest chip designs.
- MNDY: +16.6% vs cost, 0.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because enterprise customer adoption or retention deteriorates.
Closed trades in the last 30 days:
- 2026-10-23: SELL IONQ, 7.584106 shares, realized -$68.03.
Not investment advice.