What happened
Markets retreated as technology sentiment soured, with headlines pointing to a sharp Nasdaq sell-off, disappointing results from Meta and Tesla, and higher oil prices. Walmart introduced AI shopping tools, while Apple’s foldable phone faced questions about app compatibility; other coverage focused on AI investment and corporate updates. The portfolio fell 2.7% today and is down 4.9% since inception, trailing the S&P 500’s 1.9% decline over that period.
What we did
- Add of TSM, 2.4877 shares at $419.39 at the open. Why: The credit upgrade citing AI demand and market dominance reinforces the existing earnings and guidance evidence. Increase exposure to this supported demand trend rather than chase today's broad rebound.
- Add of AMD, 1.2315 shares at $524.09 at the open. Why: Vultr's planned 20 MW deployment using MI355X GPUs provides specific customer adoption evidence. Increase the small holding moderately because the announcement describes a plan, not established realized revenue.
- Add of SHOP, 4.3073 shares at $174.38 at the open. Why: Shop Pay integration into Meta's Muse AI agent adds a concrete AI-commerce distribution channel. Build a modest position while recognizing that strong recent price performance already reflects some optimism.
- Queued for the next open: SELL IONQ, about $236.32. Why: The supplied 20-day return is -30.7%, breaching the explicit -30% exit condition. The price-based thesis has failed; exit the entire position.
- Queued for the next open: ADD ASML, about $740.47. Why: Reported EUV machines sold out through 2028 provide concrete demand visibility despite the sector selloff. Increase the small holding moderately while retaining cash against broader AI financing uncertainty.
- Exit checks against our own stated exit conditions: 16 intact (PLTR, NVDA, TSM, GOOG, NOW, AMD, AMZN, SHOP, SNOW, META, ASML, DDOG, AAPL, MSFT, QCOM, MNDY); IONQ triggered, sell queued: Supplied price data shows a -30.7% 20-day return, below the -30% threshold. Sell the entire holding.
Review
Portfolio value $24,701.38 (-4.9% since inception, -2.7% today), cash 16.7% of NAV. Benchmarks since inception: SPY -1.9%, QQQ -6.2%, DIA +2.3%, IWM -0.8%, URTH -1.4%, ACWI -2.2%, VGK +0.9%, EEM -7.6%, SMH -13.3%, AIQ -6.8%.
Beating 4 of 10 indexes since inception.
Open positions against their thesis:
- PLTR: -6.2% vs cost, 17.1% of NAV; exit if: company results show contracting commercial revenue or management cuts guidance because enterprise AI demand weakens.
- NVDA: -7.5% vs cost, 11.6% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because AI infrastructure customers cancel or defer orders.
- TSM: -2.3% vs cost, 11.2% of NAV; exit if: TSM cuts its current-quarter guidance or reports a material deterioration in AI-related demand.
- GOOG: -7.8% vs cost, 9.4% of NAV; exit if: enterprise Gemini adoption contracts or management reports material AI-driven erosion of its core business.
- NOW: +5.9% vs cost, 7.4% of NAV; exit if: subsequent results show declining enterprise adoption or management cuts guidance because AI products fail to convert into revenue.
- AMD: -10.3% vs cost, 5.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its AI-chip revenue outlook because customers cancel orders or choose competing products.
- AMZN: -4.6% vs cost, 5.0% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud revenue outlook because enterprise demand or AI workload growth materially weakens.
- SHOP: -2.8% vs cost, 3.6% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its growth outlook because merchant demand weakens, or reports contracting merchant activity.
- SNOW: -14.9% vs cost, 2.8% of NAV; exit if: management cuts product revenue guidance because customer consumption or enterprise adoption weakens.
- META: -9.7% vs cost, 2.6% of NAV; exit if: management reports sustained deterioration in operating profitability attributable to AI spending without corresponding revenue gains.
- ASML: -12.3% vs cost, 2.3% of NAV; exit if: management reduces capacity expansion plans or guidance because advanced-chip equipment demand materially deteriorates.
- DDOG: -12.1% vs cost, 1.5% of NAV; exit if: results show declining enterprise customer adoption or management cuts revenue guidance because usage weakens.
- AAPL: +3.4% vs cost, 1.2% of NAV; exit if: Apple Silicon loses support for major local AI deployments or management reports weakening demand tied to its AI product strategy.
- IONQ: -21.9% vs cost, 1.0% of NAV; exit if: the supplied 20-trading-day return reaches -30% or management reports a material commercialization delay.
- MSFT: -2.6% vs cost, 0.9% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud outlook because AI demand disappoints or reports sustained deterioration in AI-service adoption.
- QCOM: -1.5% vs cost, 0.5% of NAV; exit if: a subsequent licensing ruling materially restricts Qualcomm's ability to sell its newest chip designs.
- MNDY: +20.1% vs cost, 0.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because enterprise customer adoption or retention deteriorates.
Closed trades in the last 30 days:
- None.
Not investment advice.