What happened
AI infrastructure and investment remained in focus, with Vultr and AMD announcing a Chennai supercluster plan and Today AI revealing backing for personal AI agents. Earnings and chip-demand headlines were mixed: Texas Instruments and IBM beat expectations, while Lam Research’s outlook disappointed. Coverage also highlighted Tesla’s self-driving pitch amid declining sales, gains in several cybersecurity stocks, and developments involving SpaceX and AI-focused cloud providers. The portfolio rose 1.6% today, while it remains down 2.3% since inception and ahead of 4 of 10 listed indexes.
What we did
No trades were filled at today's open.
- Queued for the next open: ADD TSM, about $1,020.75. Why: The credit upgrade citing AI demand and market dominance reinforces the existing earnings and guidance evidence. Increase exposure to this supported demand trend rather than chase today's broad rebound.
- Queued for the next open: ADD AMD, about $623.34. Why: Vultr's planned 20 MW deployment using MI355X GPUs provides specific customer adoption evidence. Increase the small holding moderately because the announcement describes a plan, not established realized revenue.
- Queued for the next open: ADD SHOP, about $761.16. Why: Shop Pay integration into Meta's Muse AI agent adds a concrete AI-commerce distribution channel. Build a modest position while recognizing that strong recent price performance already reflects some optimism.
- Exit checks against our own stated exit conditions: 17 intact (PLTR, NVDA, GOOG, TSM, NOW, AMZN, SNOW, AMD, META, ASML, DDOG, AAPL, IONQ, MSFT, SHOP, QCOM, MNDY).
Review
Portfolio value $25,387.39 (-2.3% since inception, +1.6% today), cash 25.9% of NAV. Benchmarks since inception: SPY -0.7%, QQQ -3.5%, DIA +2.3%, IWM -0.9%, URTH -0.3%, ACWI -0.8%, VGK +1.8%, EEM -4.8%, SMH -7.7%, AIQ -3.9%.
Beating 4 of 10 indexes since inception.
Open positions against their thesis:
- PLTR: -3.5% vs cost, 17.1% of NAV; exit if: company results show contracting commercial revenue or management cuts guidance because enterprise AI demand weakens.
- NVDA: -3.2% vs cost, 11.8% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because AI infrastructure customers cancel or defer orders.
- GOOG: -4.9% vs cost, 9.5% of NAV; exit if: enterprise Gemini adoption contracts or management reports material AI-driven erosion of its core business.
- TSM: +2.0% vs cost, 7.2% of NAV; exit if: TSM cuts its current-quarter guidance or reports a material deterioration in AI-related demand.
- NOW: +3.3% vs cost, 7.1% of NAV; exit if: subsequent results show declining enterprise adoption or management cuts guidance because AI products fail to convert into revenue.
- AMZN: -0.0% vs cost, 5.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud revenue outlook because enterprise demand or AI workload growth materially weakens.
- SNOW: -12.5% vs cost, 2.8% of NAV; exit if: management cuts product revenue guidance because customer consumption or enterprise adoption weakens.
- AMD: -9.1% vs cost, 2.7% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its AI-chip revenue outlook because customers cancel orders or choose competing products.
- META: -2.9% vs cost, 2.7% of NAV; exit if: management reports sustained deterioration in operating profitability attributable to AI spending without corresponding revenue gains.
- ASML: -5.8% vs cost, 2.4% of NAV; exit if: management reduces capacity expansion plans or guidance because advanced-chip equipment demand materially deteriorates.
- DDOG: -6.9% vs cost, 1.5% of NAV; exit if: results show declining enterprise customer adoption or management cuts revenue guidance because usage weakens.
- AAPL: +2.2% vs cost, 1.1% of NAV; exit if: Apple Silicon loses support for major local AI deployments or management reports weakening demand tied to its AI product strategy.
- IONQ: -19.1% vs cost, 1.0% of NAV; exit if: the supplied 20-trading-day return reaches -30% or management reports a material commercialization delay.
- MSFT: -0.4% vs cost, 0.9% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud outlook because AI demand disappoints or reports sustained deterioration in AI-service adoption.
- SHOP: +2.0% vs cost, 0.7% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its growth outlook because merchant demand weakens, or reports contracting merchant activity.
- QCOM: +1.4% vs cost, 0.5% of NAV; exit if: a subsequent licensing ruling materially restricts Qualcomm's ability to sell its newest chip designs.
- MNDY: +12.6% vs cost, 0.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because enterprise customer adoption or retention deteriorates.
Closed trades in the last 30 days:
- None.
Not investment advice.