What happened
Markets finished solidly higher after paring earlier gains, with chip stocks rallying and several headlines focused on AI infrastructure, including deals and activity involving Nvidia, Oracle, and Teradyne. Other coverage highlighted investor position changes, stock comparisons, and views on AI’s role in inflation. The portfolio rose 1.2% today, but remains down 14.8% since inception and is ahead of 1 of 10 tracked indexes.
What we did
- Sell of NVDA, 13.496206 shares at $172.72 at the open (automatic stop-loss exit). Why: stop-loss: down 26.3% vs average cost (limit 25%).
- Add of TSM, 2.517 shares at $415.25 at the open. Why: October sales rose 59.7% year over year and exceeded seasonal expectations. Add to demonstrated demand strength while keeping the position below the concentration cap.
- Buy of NET, 2.8179 shares at $316.14 at the open. Why: Third-quarter revenue grew 39%, the fastest growth in nearly four years, and exceeded the company's guidance midpoint by $46 million. Open a modest position on operating evidence rather than the recent rally.
- Queued for the next open: BUY VRT, about $1,106.63. Why: Organic orders more than doubled last quarter and full-year sales guidance rose by $650 million. Open a measured position in data-center power and cooling on demonstrated demand, not today's sector rebound.
- Exit checks against our own stated exit conditions: 14 intact (TSM, GOOG, ASML, SHOP, AMZN, SNOW, MSFT, NET, CDNS, KLAC, META, AAPL, QCOM, MNDY).
Review
Portfolio value $22,132.59 (-14.8% since inception, +1.2% today), cash 26.4% of NAV. Benchmarks since inception: SPY -2.4%, QQQ -8.1%, DIA +1.6%, IWM +1.5%, URTH -1.5%, ACWI -2.2%, VGK +4.0%, EEM -7.1%, SMH -16.0%, AIQ -10.1%.
Beating 1 of 10 indexes since inception.
Open positions against their thesis:
- TSM: -1.6% vs cost, 17.2% of NAV; exit if: TSM cuts its current-quarter guidance or reports a material deterioration in AI-related demand.
- GOOG: -16.4% vs cost, 9.6% of NAV; exit if: enterprise Gemini adoption contracts or management reports material AI-driven erosion of its core business.
- ASML: -5.5% vs cost, 8.2% of NAV; exit if: management reduces capacity expansion plans or guidance because advanced-chip equipment demand materially deteriorates.
- SHOP: -8.8% vs cost, 6.4% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its growth outlook because merchant demand weakens, or reports contracting merchant activity.
- AMZN: +1.4% vs cost, 5.9% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud revenue outlook because enterprise demand or AI workload growth materially weakens.
- SNOW: -13.4% vs cost, 5.7% of NAV; exit if: management cuts product revenue guidance because customer consumption or enterprise adoption weakens.
- MSFT: -3.4% vs cost, 5.2% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud outlook because AI demand disappoints or reports sustained deterioration in AI-service adoption.
- NET: -0.4% vs cost, 4.0% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because enterprise demand weakens or reports revenue growth below 25%.
- CDNS: +1.0% vs cost, 3.4% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because chip-design customer spending or demand weakens.
- KLAC: +1.1% vs cost, 3.2% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because semiconductor customers reduce inspection or process-control equipment spending.
- META: -12.5% vs cost, 2.8% of NAV; exit if: management reports sustained deterioration in operating profitability attributable to AI spending without corresponding revenue gains.
- AAPL: +5.6% vs cost, 1.3% of NAV; exit if: Apple Silicon loses support for major local AI deployments or management reports weakening demand tied to its AI product strategy.
- QCOM: +0.6% vs cost, 0.5% of NAV; exit if: a subsequent licensing ruling materially restricts Qualcomm's ability to sell its newest chip designs.
- MNDY: -12.7% vs cost, 0.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because enterprise customer adoption or retention deteriorates.
Closed trades in the last 30 days:
- 2026-11-11: SELL NVDA, 13.496206 shares, realized -$763.35.
- 2026-11-06: SELL PLTR, 21.569816 shares, realized -$1,086.47.
- 2026-11-06: SELL AMD, 3.725881 shares, realized -$354.80.
- 2026-11-03: SELL DDOG, 1.406806 shares, realized -$112.91.
- 2026-10-30: SELL NOW, 11.700883 shares, realized -$457.28.
- 2026-10-23: SELL IONQ, 7.584106 shares, realized -$68.03.
Not investment advice.