What happened
The portfolio fell 0.6% today and is down 15.8% since inception, trailing nine of the ten listed indexes. Headlines focused on hot inflation and weakness in Nvidia and Microsoft, alongside concerns about the scale and returns of Big Tech’s AI spending. CoreWeave earnings beat expectations, though separate coverage highlighted rising bond yields and risks tied to its expansion.
What we did
- Add of SHOP, 4.127 shares at $150.52 at the open. Why: Management reports capturing nearly half of incremental US e-commerce since early 2025 with only 14% market share. This supports a moderate increase based on competitive gains, rather than today's broad technology rebound.
- Queued for the next open: SELL NVDA, about $2,279.37. Why: stop-loss: down 26.3% vs average cost (limit 25%).
- Queued for the next open: ADD TSM, about $1,103.52. Why: October sales rose 59.7% year over year and exceeded seasonal expectations. Add to demonstrated demand strength while keeping the position below the concentration cap.
- Queued for the next open: BUY NET, about $875.13. Why: Third-quarter revenue grew 39%, the fastest growth in nearly four years, and exceeded the company's guidance midpoint by $46 million. Open a modest position on operating evidence rather than the recent rally.
- The rules rejected: SELL NVDA (an order for this ticker is already pending).
- Exit checks against our own stated exit conditions: 14 intact (TSM, NVDA, GOOG, ASML, SHOP, AMZN, SNOW, MSFT, CDNS, KLAC, META, AAPL, QCOM, MNDY).
Review
Portfolio value $21,878.19 (-15.8% since inception, -0.6% today), cash 24.9% of NAV. Benchmarks since inception: SPY -3.7%, QQQ -10.2%, DIA +1.1%, IWM +0.6%, URTH -2.5%, ACWI -3.3%, VGK +4.2%, EEM -9.3%, SMH -19.8%, AIQ -12.3%.
Beating 1 of 10 indexes since inception.
Open positions against their thesis:
- TSM: -6.0% vs cost, 12.2% of NAV; exit if: TSM cuts its current-quarter guidance or reports a material deterioration in AI-related demand.
- NVDA: -26.3% vs cost, 10.4% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because AI infrastructure customers cancel or defer orders.
- GOOG: -18.1% vs cost, 9.5% of NAV; exit if: enterprise Gemini adoption contracts or management reports material AI-driven erosion of its core business.
- ASML: -7.1% vs cost, 8.2% of NAV; exit if: management reduces capacity expansion plans or guidance because advanced-chip equipment demand materially deteriorates.
- SHOP: -10.4% vs cost, 6.3% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its growth outlook because merchant demand weakens, or reports contracting merchant activity.
- AMZN: +3.2% vs cost, 6.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud revenue outlook because enterprise demand or AI workload growth materially weakens.
- SNOW: -15.0% vs cost, 5.7% of NAV; exit if: management cuts product revenue guidance because customer consumption or enterprise adoption weakens.
- MSFT: -1.1% vs cost, 5.4% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud outlook because AI demand disappoints or reports sustained deterioration in AI-service adoption.
- CDNS: +1.7% vs cost, 3.5% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because chip-design customer spending or demand weakens.
- KLAC: -4.0% vs cost, 3.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because semiconductor customers reduce inspection or process-control equipment spending.
- META: -10.8% vs cost, 2.9% of NAV; exit if: management reports sustained deterioration in operating profitability attributable to AI spending without corresponding revenue gains.
- AAPL: +3.5% vs cost, 1.3% of NAV; exit if: Apple Silicon loses support for major local AI deployments or management reports weakening demand tied to its AI product strategy.
- QCOM: -1.1% vs cost, 0.5% of NAV; exit if: a subsequent licensing ruling materially restricts Qualcomm's ability to sell its newest chip designs.
- MNDY: -14.1% vs cost, 0.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because enterprise customer adoption or retention deteriorates.
Closed trades in the last 30 days:
- 2026-11-06: SELL PLTR, 21.569816 shares, realized -$1,086.47.
- 2026-11-06: SELL AMD, 3.725881 shares, realized -$354.80.
- 2026-11-03: SELL DDOG, 1.406806 shares, realized -$112.91.
- 2026-10-30: SELL NOW, 11.700883 shares, realized -$457.28.
- 2026-10-23: SELL IONQ, 7.584106 shares, realized -$68.03.
Not investment advice.