What happened
US equity markets ended higher as oil fell, with industrials and consumer discretionary leading gains; the portfolio rose 1.8% today but remains down 15.3% since inception, ahead of 1 of 10 indexes. Headlines highlighted AMD’s Google Cloud deal and upgrade, AI data centers seeking used jet engines amid long waits for new turbines, and an AI partnership between Adobe and Disney. Other stories focused on earnings and company updates, including monday.com, Clearway Energy, Constellation Energy and Teradyne, alongside moves in quantum-computing stocks and Tesla’s China sales.
What we did
No trades were filled at today's open.
- Queued for the next open: ADD SHOP, about $620.28. Why: Management reports capturing nearly half of incremental US e-commerce since early 2025 with only 14% market share. This supports a moderate increase based on competitive gains, rather than today's broad technology rebound.
- Exit checks against our own stated exit conditions: 14 intact (TSM, NVDA, GOOG, ASML, AMZN, SNOW, MSFT, SHOP, CDNS, KLAC, META, AAPL, QCOM, MNDY).
Review
Portfolio value $22,010.71 (-15.3% since inception, +1.8% today), cash 27.5% of NAV. Benchmarks since inception: SPY -3.3%, QQQ -9.6%, DIA +1.4%, IWM +1.3%, URTH -2.1%, ACWI -2.8%, VGK +4.6%, EEM -8.6%, SMH -19.2%, AIQ -11.8%.
Beating 1 of 10 indexes since inception.
Open positions against their thesis:
- TSM: -7.9% vs cost, 11.8% of NAV; exit if: TSM cuts its current-quarter guidance or reports a material deterioration in AI-related demand.
- NVDA: -22.1% vs cost, 11.0% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because AI infrastructure customers cancel or defer orders.
- GOOG: -17.8% vs cost, 9.4% of NAV; exit if: enterprise Gemini adoption contracts or management reports material AI-driven erosion of its core business.
- ASML: -6.8% vs cost, 8.2% of NAV; exit if: management reduces capacity expansion plans or guidance because advanced-chip equipment demand materially deteriorates.
- AMZN: +1.7% vs cost, 5.9% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud revenue outlook because enterprise demand or AI workload growth materially weakens.
- SNOW: -16.3% vs cost, 5.6% of NAV; exit if: management cuts product revenue guidance because customer consumption or enterprise adoption weakens.
- MSFT: +1.1% vs cost, 5.5% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud outlook because AI demand disappoints or reports sustained deterioration in AI-service adoption.
- SHOP: -12.5% vs cost, 3.7% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its growth outlook because merchant demand weakens, or reports contracting merchant activity.
- CDNS: +3.2% vs cost, 3.5% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because chip-design customer spending or demand weakens.
- KLAC: -5.0% vs cost, 3.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because semiconductor customers reduce inspection or process-control equipment spending.
- META: -10.8% vs cost, 2.8% of NAV; exit if: management reports sustained deterioration in operating profitability attributable to AI spending without corresponding revenue gains.
- AAPL: +4.2% vs cost, 1.3% of NAV; exit if: Apple Silicon loses support for major local AI deployments or management reports weakening demand tied to its AI product strategy.
- QCOM: -2.3% vs cost, 0.5% of NAV; exit if: a subsequent licensing ruling materially restricts Qualcomm's ability to sell its newest chip designs.
- MNDY: -10.2% vs cost, 0.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because enterprise customer adoption or retention deteriorates.
Closed trades in the last 30 days:
- 2026-11-06: SELL PLTR, 21.569816 shares, realized -$1,086.47.
- 2026-11-06: SELL AMD, 3.725881 shares, realized -$354.80.
- 2026-11-03: SELL DDOG, 1.406806 shares, realized -$112.91.
- 2026-10-30: SELL NOW, 11.700883 shares, realized -$457.28.
- 2026-10-23: SELL IONQ, 7.584106 shares, realized -$68.03.
Not investment advice.