What happened
AI and semiconductor headlines focused on infrastructure concerns and a broad tech selloff, alongside developments in AI photonics, quantum error correction, and a canceled chip-facility expansion. Other stories covered China’s crackdown on AI impersonation accounts, product and earnings news at Warby Parker, Oklo, and Tesla, and cybersecurity stocks. The portfolio rose 3.1% today but remains down 16.8% since inception, ahead of 1 of 10 listed indexes.
What we did
- Sell of PLTR, 21.569816 shares at $158.68 at the open (automatic stop-loss exit). Why: stop-loss: down 25.9% vs average cost (limit 25%).
- Sell of AMD, 3.725881 shares at $444.43 at the open (automatic stop-loss exit). Why: stop-loss: down 25.1% vs average cost (limit 25%).
- Exit checks against our own stated exit conditions: 14 intact (NVDA, TSM, GOOG, ASML, AMZN, MSFT, SNOW, SHOP, CDNS, KLAC, META, AAPL, QCOM, MNDY).
Review
Portfolio value $21,625.10 (-16.8% since inception, +3.1% today), cash 28.0% of NAV. Benchmarks since inception: SPY -5.6%, QQQ -12.7%, DIA -0.8%, IWM -1.9%, URTH -4.5%, ACWI -5.3%, VGK +1.5%, EEM -11.2%, SMH -23.1%, AIQ -14.6%.
Beating 1 of 10 indexes since inception.
Open positions against their thesis:
- NVDA: -18.6% vs cost, 11.7% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because AI infrastructure customers cancel or defer orders.
- TSM: -11.0% vs cost, 11.7% of NAV; exit if: TSM cuts its current-quarter guidance or reports a material deterioration in AI-related demand.
- GOOG: -18.4% vs cost, 9.5% of NAV; exit if: enterprise Gemini adoption contracts or management reports material AI-driven erosion of its core business.
- ASML: -12.2% vs cost, 7.8% of NAV; exit if: management reduces capacity expansion plans or guidance because advanced-chip equipment demand materially deteriorates.
- AMZN: -1.2% vs cost, 5.9% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud revenue outlook because enterprise demand or AI workload growth materially weakens.
- MSFT: -1.6% vs cost, 5.4% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud outlook because AI demand disappoints or reports sustained deterioration in AI-service adoption.
- SNOW: -20.7% vs cost, 5.4% of NAV; exit if: management cuts product revenue guidance because customer consumption or enterprise adoption weakens.
- SHOP: -14.3% vs cost, 3.7% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its growth outlook because merchant demand weakens, or reports contracting merchant activity.
- CDNS: -1.9% vs cost, 3.4% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because chip-design customer spending or demand weakens.
- KLAC: -13.1% vs cost, 2.8% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because semiconductor customers reduce inspection or process-control equipment spending.
- META: -15.1% vs cost, 2.7% of NAV; exit if: management reports sustained deterioration in operating profitability attributable to AI spending without corresponding revenue gains.
- AAPL: +1.7% vs cost, 1.3% of NAV; exit if: Apple Silicon loses support for major local AI deployments or management reports weakening demand tied to its AI product strategy.
- QCOM: -5.8% vs cost, 0.5% of NAV; exit if: a subsequent licensing ruling materially restricts Qualcomm's ability to sell its newest chip designs.
- MNDY: -1.2% vs cost, 0.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because enterprise customer adoption or retention deteriorates.
Closed trades in the last 30 days:
- 2026-11-06: SELL PLTR, 21.569816 shares, realized -$1,086.47.
- 2026-11-06: SELL AMD, 3.725881 shares, realized -$354.80.
- 2026-11-03: SELL DDOG, 1.406806 shares, realized -$112.91.
- 2026-10-30: SELL NOW, 11.700883 shares, realized -$457.28.
- 2026-10-23: SELL IONQ, 7.584106 shares, realized -$68.03.
Not investment advice.