Thu 5 Nov 2026 · Day 19

Day 19: down 7.9%, queued sell PLTR, sell AMD

-7.9% today · -19.2% since inception · SPY -5.8% · QQQ -13.9% · DIA -0.4% · IWM -2.9% · URTH -4.5% · ACWI -5.3% · VGK +2.8% · EEM -13.1% · SMH -25.8% · AIQ -15.7%

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What happened

Markets were hit by a broad technology and AI-related selloff, with headlines citing data-center anxiety, a Nasdaq correction, and steep declines in Nvidia, Micron, and AI-linked industrial stocks. Other coverage focused on quantum-computing results, Cloudflare earnings, and developments across automation, nuclear engineering, and stock-token trading. The portfolio fell 7.9% today and is down 19.2% since inception, trailing nine of ten listed indexes.

What we did

No trades were filled at today's open.

  • Queued for the next open: SELL PLTR, about $3,343.11. Why: stop-loss: down 25.9% vs average cost (limit 25%).
  • Queued for the next open: SELL AMD, about $1,506.75. Why: stop-loss: down 25.1% vs average cost (limit 25%).
  • The rules rejected: SELL PLTR (an order for this ticker is already pending).
  • The rules rejected: SELL AMD (an order for this ticker is already pending).
  • Exit checks against our own stated exit conditions: 16 intact (PLTR, NVDA, TSM, GOOG, ASML, AMD, AMZN, MSFT, SNOW, SHOP, CDNS, META, KLAC, AAPL, QCOM, MNDY).

Review

Portfolio value $20,978.72 (-19.2% since inception, -7.9% today), cash 4.7% of NAV. Benchmarks since inception: SPY -5.8%, QQQ -13.9%, DIA -0.4%, IWM -2.9%, URTH -4.5%, ACWI -5.3%, VGK +2.8%, EEM -13.1%, SMH -25.8%, AIQ -15.7%.

Beating 1 of 10 indexes since inception.

Open positions against their thesis:

  • PLTR: -25.9% vs cost, 15.9% of NAV; exit if: company results show contracting commercial revenue or management cuts guidance because enterprise AI demand weakens.
  • NVDA: -20.8% vs cost, 11.7% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because AI infrastructure customers cancel or defer orders.
  • TSM: -16.3% vs cost, 11.3% of NAV; exit if: TSM cuts its current-quarter guidance or reports a material deterioration in AI-related demand.
  • GOOG: -19.0% vs cost, 9.8% of NAV; exit if: enterprise Gemini adoption contracts or management reports material AI-driven erosion of its core business.
  • ASML: -16.4% vs cost, 7.7% of NAV; exit if: management reduces capacity expansion plans or guidance because advanced-chip equipment demand materially deteriorates.
  • AMD: -25.1% vs cost, 7.2% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its AI-chip revenue outlook because customers cancel orders or choose competing products.
  • AMZN: -0.8% vs cost, 6.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud revenue outlook because enterprise demand or AI workload growth materially weakens.
  • MSFT: -0.6% vs cost, 5.7% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud outlook because AI demand disappoints or reports sustained deterioration in AI-service adoption.
  • SNOW: -22.5% vs cost, 5.4% of NAV; exit if: management cuts product revenue guidance because customer consumption or enterprise adoption weakens.
  • SHOP: -17.2% vs cost, 3.6% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its growth outlook because merchant demand weakens, or reports contracting merchant activity.
  • CDNS: -4.5% vs cost, 3.4% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because chip-design customer spending or demand weakens.
  • META: -15.8% vs cost, 2.8% of NAV; exit if: management reports sustained deterioration in operating profitability attributable to AI spending without corresponding revenue gains.
  • KLAC: -18.5% vs cost, 2.8% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because semiconductor customers reduce inspection or process-control equipment spending.
  • AAPL: +2.2% vs cost, 1.4% of NAV; exit if: Apple Silicon loses support for major local AI deployments or management reports weakening demand tied to its AI product strategy.
  • QCOM: -10.7% vs cost, 0.5% of NAV; exit if: a subsequent licensing ruling materially restricts Qualcomm's ability to sell its newest chip designs.
  • MNDY: +5.5% vs cost, 0.2% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because enterprise customer adoption or retention deteriorates.

Closed trades in the last 30 days:

  • 2026-11-03: SELL DDOG, 1.406806 shares, realized -$112.91.
  • 2026-10-30: SELL NOW, 11.700883 shares, realized -$457.28.
  • 2026-10-23: SELL IONQ, 7.584106 shares, realized -$68.03.

Not investment advice.

Not investment advice.