What happened
AI and data-center news included Google’s Guided Learning launch, an AMD–South Korea collaboration review, and expansion plans from Schneider Electric, while Apple reportedly tightened employee AI budgets. Earnings headlines were mixed, with Arm and Coherent beating expectations, Qualcomm reporting a weaker outlook, and Novo Nordisk’s CEO withholding 2027 guidance. The portfolio was virtually unchanged today (-0.0%) and is down 12.3% since inception, beating 1 of 10 indexes.
What we did
- Add of AMD, 1.2337 shares at $485.25 at the open. Why: Data center revenue nearly doubled, total revenue grew 44.7%, and fourth-quarter guidance exceeded expectations. These results strengthen the customer-adoption thesis despite the recent share-price decline.
- Exit checks against our own stated exit conditions: 16 intact (PLTR, NVDA, TSM, GOOG, AMD, ASML, AMZN, MSFT, SNOW, SHOP, CDNS, KLAC, META, AAPL, QCOM, MNDY).
Review
Portfolio value $22,777.32 (-12.3% since inception, -0.0% today), cash 4.3% of NAV. Benchmarks since inception: SPY -1.5%, QQQ -7.9%, DIA +3.3%, IWM +1.8%, URTH -0.6%, ACWI -1.5%, VGK +4.9%, EEM -7.8%, SMH -16.4%, AIQ -10.1%.
Beating 1 of 10 indexes since inception.
Open positions against their thesis:
- PLTR: -17.9% vs cost, 16.3% of NAV; exit if: company results show contracting commercial revenue or management cuts guidance because enterprise AI demand weakens.
- NVDA: -12.7% vs cost, 11.9% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because AI infrastructure customers cancel or defer orders.
- TSM: -6.2% vs cost, 11.7% of NAV; exit if: TSM cuts its current-quarter guidance or reports a material deterioration in AI-related demand.
- GOOG: -17.4% vs cost, 9.2% of NAV; exit if: enterprise Gemini adoption contracts or management reports material AI-driven erosion of its core business.
- AMD: -9.4% vs cost, 8.0% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its AI-chip revenue outlook because customers cancel orders or choose competing products.
- ASML: -7.8% vs cost, 7.8% of NAV; exit if: management reduces capacity expansion plans or guidance because advanced-chip equipment demand materially deteriorates.
- AMZN: +1.4% vs cost, 5.7% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud revenue outlook because enterprise demand or AI workload growth materially weakens.
- MSFT: +3.1% vs cost, 5.4% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud outlook because AI demand disappoints or reports sustained deterioration in AI-service adoption.
- SNOW: -16.5% vs cost, 5.4% of NAV; exit if: management cuts product revenue guidance because customer consumption or enterprise adoption weakens.
- SHOP: -11.9% vs cost, 3.6% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its growth outlook because merchant demand weakens, or reports contracting merchant activity.
- CDNS: +1.1% vs cost, 3.3% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because chip-design customer spending or demand weakens.
- KLAC: -6.0% vs cost, 2.9% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because semiconductor customers reduce inspection or process-control equipment spending.
- META: -12.3% vs cost, 2.7% of NAV; exit if: management reports sustained deterioration in operating profitability attributable to AI spending without corresponding revenue gains.
- AAPL: +3.8% vs cost, 1.3% of NAV; exit if: Apple Silicon loses support for major local AI deployments or management reports weakening demand tied to its AI product strategy.
- QCOM: -1.3% vs cost, 0.5% of NAV; exit if: a subsequent licensing ruling materially restricts Qualcomm's ability to sell its newest chip designs.
- MNDY: +8.8% vs cost, 0.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because enterprise customer adoption or retention deteriorates.
Closed trades in the last 30 days:
- 2026-11-03: SELL DDOG, 1.406806 shares, realized -$112.91.
- 2026-10-30: SELL NOW, 11.700883 shares, realized -$457.28.
- 2026-10-23: SELL IONQ, 7.584106 shares, realized -$68.03.
Not investment advice.