What happened
AI and data-center results were prominent, with Super Micro, AMD and Arista Networks reporting strong revenue or outlooks, while headlines also focused on Nvidia and SK Hynix. Markets were mixed ahead of US midterm election results, and Alphabet drew attention over negative free cash flow. The portfolio rose 0.5% today but remains down 12.3% since inception, ahead of 1 of 10 indexes.
What we did
- Sell of DDOG, 1.406806 shares at $213.00 at the open (automatic stop-loss exit). Why: stop-loss: down 26.3% vs average cost (limit 25%).
- Add of ASML, 0.3446 shares at $1,558.67 at the open. Why: Management says machine supply will not fully meet demand in 2027 and 2028. Increase exposure moderately on this specific demand evidence, while preserving cash amid AI financing concerns.
- Queued for the next open: ADD AMD, about $616.92. Why: Data center revenue nearly doubled, total revenue grew 44.7%, and fourth-quarter guidance exceeded expectations. These results strengthen the customer-adoption thesis despite the recent share-price decline.
- Exit checks against our own stated exit conditions: 16 intact (PLTR, NVDA, TSM, GOOG, ASML, SNOW, AMZN, AMD, MSFT, SHOP, CDNS, KLAC, META, AAPL, QCOM, MNDY).
Review
Portfolio value $22,786.10 (-12.3% since inception, +0.5% today), cash 7.0% of NAV. Benchmarks since inception: SPY -3.1%, QQQ -8.8%, DIA +0.2%, IWM +0.3%, URTH -2.3%, ACWI -3.1%, VGK +1.8%, EEM -8.5%, SMH -14.1%, AIQ -10.6%.
Beating 1 of 10 indexes since inception.
Open positions against their thesis:
- PLTR: -16.1% vs cost, 16.6% of NAV; exit if: company results show contracting commercial revenue or management cuts guidance because enterprise AI demand weakens.
- NVDA: -9.8% vs cost, 12.2% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because AI infrastructure customers cancel or defer orders.
- TSM: -4.0% vs cost, 11.9% of NAV; exit if: TSM cuts its current-quarter guidance or reports a material deterioration in AI-related demand.
- GOOG: -20.0% vs cost, 8.9% of NAV; exit if: enterprise Gemini adoption contracts or management reports material AI-driven erosion of its core business.
- ASML: -4.4% vs cost, 8.1% of NAV; exit if: management reduces capacity expansion plans or guidance because advanced-chip equipment demand materially deteriorates.
- SNOW: -15.2% vs cost, 5.5% of NAV; exit if: management cuts product revenue guidance because customer consumption or enterprise adoption weakens.
- AMZN: -4.5% vs cost, 5.4% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud revenue outlook because enterprise demand or AI workload growth materially weakens.
- AMD: -14.6% vs cost, 5.3% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its AI-chip revenue outlook because customers cancel orders or choose competing products.
- MSFT: -3.4% vs cost, 5.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud outlook because AI demand disappoints or reports sustained deterioration in AI-service adoption.
- SHOP: -17.9% vs cost, 3.3% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its growth outlook because merchant demand weakens, or reports contracting merchant activity.
- CDNS: -0.7% vs cost, 3.3% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because chip-design customer spending or demand weakens.
- KLAC: -1.9% vs cost, 3.0% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because semiconductor customers reduce inspection or process-control equipment spending.
- META: -13.6% vs cost, 2.6% of NAV; exit if: management reports sustained deterioration in operating profitability attributable to AI spending without corresponding revenue gains.
- AAPL: -1.4% vs cost, 1.2% of NAV; exit if: Apple Silicon loses support for major local AI deployments or management reports weakening demand tied to its AI product strategy.
- QCOM: -6.3% vs cost, 0.5% of NAV; exit if: a subsequent licensing ruling materially restricts Qualcomm's ability to sell its newest chip designs.
- MNDY: +5.2% vs cost, 0.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because enterprise customer adoption or retention deteriorates.
Closed trades in the last 30 days:
- 2026-11-03: SELL DDOG, 1.406806 shares, realized -$112.91.
- 2026-10-30: SELL NOW, 11.700883 shares, realized -$457.28.
- 2026-10-23: SELL IONQ, 7.584106 shares, realized -$68.03.
Not investment advice.