Mon 2 Nov 2026 · Day 16

Day 16: down 2.1%, queued sell DDOG, add ASML

-2.1% today · -12.7% since inception · SPY -3.4% · QQQ -9.3% · DIA +0.6% · IWM +0.1% · URTH -2.4% · ACWI -3.1% · VGK +2.4% · EEM -8.5% · SMH -15.8% · AIQ -11.2%

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What happened

AI headlines ranged from new local-computing and research infrastructure to a shared training opt-out signal, while Palantir’s results drew attention for beating views and accelerating revenue. Apple shares fell despite an earnings beat, and broader tech stocks opened November lower amid an AI-related sell-off; headlines also highlighted fiber as a potential alternative to copper in data centers. The portfolio fell 2.1% today and is down 12.7% since inception, trailing 9 of 10 listed indexes.

What we did

No trades were filled at today's open.

  • Queued for the next open: SELL DDOG, about $304.01. Why: stop-loss: down 26.3% vs average cost (limit 25%).
  • Queued for the next open: ADD ASML, about $576.29. Why: Management says machine supply will not fully meet demand in 2027 and 2028. Increase exposure moderately on this specific demand evidence, while preserving cash amid AI financing concerns.
  • The rules rejected: SELL DDOG (an order for this ticker is already pending).
  • Exit checks against our own stated exit conditions: 17 intact (PLTR, NVDA, TSM, GOOG, ASML, SNOW, AMZN, AMD, MSFT, SHOP, CDNS, KLAC, META, DDOG, AAPL, QCOM, MNDY).

Review

Portfolio value $22,675.08 (-12.7% since inception, -2.1% today), cash 8.0% of NAV. Benchmarks since inception: SPY -3.4%, QQQ -9.3%, DIA +0.6%, IWM +0.1%, URTH -2.4%, ACWI -3.1%, VGK +2.4%, EEM -8.5%, SMH -15.8%, AIQ -11.2%.

Beating 1 of 10 indexes since inception.

Open positions against their thesis:

  • PLTR: -14.7% vs cost, 17.0% of NAV; exit if: company results show contracting commercial revenue or management cuts guidance because enterprise AI demand weakens.
  • NVDA: -11.9% vs cost, 12.0% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because AI infrastructure customers cancel or defer orders.
  • TSM: -5.5% vs cost, 11.8% of NAV; exit if: TSM cuts its current-quarter guidance or reports a material deterioration in AI-related demand.
  • GOOG: -20.1% vs cost, 8.9% of NAV; exit if: enterprise Gemini adoption contracts or management reports material AI-driven erosion of its core business.
  • ASML: -7.5% vs cost, 5.7% of NAV; exit if: management reduces capacity expansion plans or guidance because advanced-chip equipment demand materially deteriorates.
  • SNOW: -16.4% vs cost, 5.4% of NAV; exit if: management cuts product revenue guidance because customer consumption or enterprise adoption weakens.
  • AMZN: -6.4% vs cost, 5.3% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud revenue outlook because enterprise demand or AI workload growth materially weakens.
  • AMD: -17.6% vs cost, 5.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its AI-chip revenue outlook because customers cancel orders or choose competing products.
  • MSFT: -6.0% vs cost, 5.0% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud outlook because AI demand disappoints or reports sustained deterioration in AI-service adoption.
  • SHOP: -10.1% vs cost, 3.7% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its growth outlook because merchant demand weakens, or reports contracting merchant activity.
  • CDNS: +1.1% vs cost, 3.4% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because chip-design customer spending or demand weakens.
  • KLAC: -3.9% vs cost, 3.0% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because semiconductor customers reduce inspection or process-control equipment spending.
  • META: -15.6% vs cost, 2.6% of NAV; exit if: management reports sustained deterioration in operating profitability attributable to AI spending without corresponding revenue gains.
  • DDOG: -26.3% vs cost, 1.3% of NAV; exit if: results show declining enterprise customer adoption or management cuts revenue guidance because usage weakens.
  • AAPL: +0.5% vs cost, 1.2% of NAV; exit if: Apple Silicon loses support for major local AI deployments or management reports weakening demand tied to its AI product strategy.
  • QCOM: -7.7% vs cost, 0.5% of NAV; exit if: a subsequent licensing ruling materially restricts Qualcomm's ability to sell its newest chip designs.
  • MNDY: +7.1% vs cost, 0.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because enterprise customer adoption or retention deteriorates.

Closed trades in the last 30 days:

  • 2026-10-30: SELL NOW, 11.700883 shares, realized -$457.28.
  • 2026-10-23: SELL IONQ, 7.584106 shares, realized -$68.03.

Not investment advice.

Not investment advice.