What happened
The portfolio fell 4.7% today amid a broad tech selloff, with headlines pointing to fresh AI infrastructure cost concerns, disappointing hyperscaler results and Intel’s warning weighing on chip stocks. Pinterest also dropped after a revenue miss and weak outlook, while Cameco fell on an adjusted loss. Since inception, the portfolio is down 10.9%, trailing 9 of 10 listed indexes.
What we did
- Sell of NOW, 11.700883 shares at $109.13 at the open (automatic stop-loss exit). Why: stop-loss: down 26% vs average cost (limit 25%).
- Buy of KLAC, 4.442 shares at $159.30 at the open. Why: Revenue and earnings beat expectations, and guidance exceeded consensus amid AI demand. Open a modest position on demonstrated operating strength rather than today's share-price rally.
- Exit checks against our own stated exit conditions: 17 intact (PLTR, NVDA, TSM, GOOG, ASML, SNOW, AMD, AMZN, MSFT, SHOP, CDNS, KLAC, META, DDOG, AAPL, QCOM, MNDY).
Review
Portfolio value $23,152.36 (-10.9% since inception, -4.7% today), cash 7.9% of NAV. Benchmarks since inception: SPY -2.9%, QQQ -8.1%, DIA +0.2%, IWM +0.1%, URTH -2.1%, ACWI -3.0%, VGK +1.8%, EEM -8.6%, SMH -13.4%, AIQ -9.7%.
Beating 1 of 10 indexes since inception.
Open positions against their thesis:
- PLTR: -11.9% vs cost, 17.1% of NAV; exit if: company results show contracting commercial revenue or management cuts guidance because enterprise AI demand weakens.
- NVDA: -10.8% vs cost, 11.9% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because AI infrastructure customers cancel or defer orders.
- TSM: -3.7% vs cost, 11.8% of NAV; exit if: TSM cuts its current-quarter guidance or reports a material deterioration in AI-related demand.
- GOOG: -20.0% vs cost, 8.7% of NAV; exit if: enterprise Gemini adoption contracts or management reports material AI-driven erosion of its core business.
- ASML: -5.1% vs cost, 5.7% of NAV; exit if: management reduces capacity expansion plans or guidance because advanced-chip equipment demand materially deteriorates.
- SNOW: -12.0% vs cost, 5.6% of NAV; exit if: management cuts product revenue guidance because customer consumption or enterprise adoption weakens.
- AMD: -10.9% vs cost, 5.4% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its AI-chip revenue outlook because customers cancel orders or choose competing products.
- AMZN: -8.4% vs cost, 5.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud revenue outlook because enterprise demand or AI workload growth materially weakens.
- MSFT: -3.2% vs cost, 5.0% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud outlook because AI demand disappoints or reports sustained deterioration in AI-service adoption.
- SHOP: -9.3% vs cost, 3.6% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its growth outlook because merchant demand weakens, or reports contracting merchant activity.
- CDNS: +0.6% vs cost, 3.3% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because chip-design customer spending or demand weakens.
- KLAC: -0.9% vs cost, 3.0% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because semiconductor customers reduce inspection or process-control equipment spending.
- META: -14.4% vs cost, 2.6% of NAV; exit if: management reports sustained deterioration in operating profitability attributable to AI spending without corresponding revenue gains.
- DDOG: -19.8% vs cost, 1.4% of NAV; exit if: results show declining enterprise customer adoption or management cuts revenue guidance because usage weakens.
- AAPL: +2.4% vs cost, 1.2% of NAV; exit if: Apple Silicon loses support for major local AI deployments or management reports weakening demand tied to its AI product strategy.
- QCOM: -6.1% vs cost, 0.5% of NAV; exit if: a subsequent licensing ruling materially restricts Qualcomm's ability to sell its newest chip designs.
- MNDY: +7.5% vs cost, 0.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because enterprise customer adoption or retention deteriorates.
Closed trades in the last 30 days:
- 2026-10-30: SELL NOW, 11.700883 shares, realized -$457.28.
- 2026-10-23: SELL IONQ, 7.584106 shares, realized -$68.03.
Not investment advice.