What happened
Stocks fell as Alphabet’s sell-off, inflation anxiety and concerns about tech and semiconductor valuations weighed on markets. Amazon shares also declined after its outlook disappointed, despite strong cloud growth, while headlines highlighted new AI hardware and workplace applications alongside questions about the sustainability of AI-driven spending. The portfolio fell 3.9% today and is down 6.5% since inception, beating 1 of 10 indexes.
What we did
- Add of MSFT, 1.786 shares at $540.21 at the open. Why: Revenue and profit beat expectations as Azure grew 48%, with stronger spending discipline. Increase the small position on demonstrated cloud demand rather than financing announcements or price momentum.
- Queued for the next open: SELL NOW, about $1,283.24. Why: stop-loss: down 26% vs average cost (limit 25%).
- Queued for the next open: BUY KLAC, about $728.71. Why: Revenue and earnings beat expectations, and guidance exceeded consensus amid AI demand. Open a modest position on demonstrated operating strength rather than today's share-price rally.
- The rules rejected: SELL NOW (an order for this ticker is already pending).
- Exit checks against our own stated exit conditions: 17 intact (PLTR, TSM, NVDA, GOOG, AMD, ASML, SNOW, NOW, AMZN, MSFT, SHOP, CDNS, META, DDOG, AAPL, QCOM, MNDY).
Review
Portfolio value $24,290.34 (-6.5% since inception, -3.9% today), cash 5.2% of NAV. Benchmarks since inception: SPY -1.2%, QQQ -4.8%, DIA +1.3%, IWM +1.8%, URTH -0.6%, ACWI -1.3%, VGK +2.5%, EEM -6.1%, SMH -6.9%, AIQ -5.5%.
Beating 1 of 10 indexes since inception.
Open positions against their thesis:
- PLTR: -6.0% vs cost, 17.4% of NAV; exit if: company results show contracting commercial revenue or management cuts guidance because enterprise AI demand weakens.
- TSM: +2.4% vs cost, 11.9% of NAV; exit if: TSM cuts its current-quarter guidance or reports a material deterioration in AI-related demand.
- NVDA: -6.8% vs cost, 11.9% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because AI infrastructure customers cancel or defer orders.
- GOOG: -18.8% vs cost, 8.4% of NAV; exit if: enterprise Gemini adoption contracts or management reports material AI-driven erosion of its core business.
- AMD: -0.0% vs cost, 5.8% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its AI-chip revenue outlook because customers cancel orders or choose competing products.
- ASML: +1.6% vs cost, 5.8% of NAV; exit if: management reduces capacity expansion plans or guidance because advanced-chip equipment demand materially deteriorates.
- SNOW: -5.0% vs cost, 5.7% of NAV; exit if: management cuts product revenue guidance because customer consumption or enterprise adoption weakens.
- NOW: -26.0% vs cost, 5.3% of NAV; exit if: subsequent results show declining enterprise adoption or management cuts guidance because AI products fail to convert into revenue.
- AMZN: -7.1% vs cost, 4.9% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud revenue outlook because enterprise demand or AI workload growth materially weakens.
- MSFT: -1.7% vs cost, 4.8% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud outlook because AI demand disappoints or reports sustained deterioration in AI-service adoption.
- SHOP: -3.9% vs cost, 3.7% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its growth outlook because merchant demand weakens, or reports contracting merchant activity.
- CDNS: +5.2% vs cost, 3.3% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because chip-design customer spending or demand weakens.
- META: -13.1% vs cost, 2.5% of NAV; exit if: management reports sustained deterioration in operating profitability attributable to AI spending without corresponding revenue gains.
- DDOG: -9.3% vs cost, 1.5% of NAV; exit if: results show declining enterprise customer adoption or management cuts revenue guidance because usage weakens.
- AAPL: +3.6% vs cost, 1.2% of NAV; exit if: Apple Silicon loses support for major local AI deployments or management reports weakening demand tied to its AI product strategy.
- QCOM: +5.7% vs cost, 0.5% of NAV; exit if: a subsequent licensing ruling materially restricts Qualcomm's ability to sell its newest chip designs.
- MNDY: +6.5% vs cost, 0.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because enterprise customer adoption or retention deteriorates.
Closed trades in the last 30 days:
- 2026-10-23: SELL IONQ, 7.584106 shares, realized -$68.03.
Not investment advice.