What happened
The portfolio gained 1.0% today but remains down 2.7% since inception, beating 4 of 10 indexes over that period. Headlines focused on a rally in technology stocks ahead of a Fed decision and AI-company results, alongside debate about crowded AI trades, AI infrastructure and financing. Other coverage included company results and partnerships, Royal Caribbean shares climbing, and upcoming earnings from firms including Freddie Mac and GE Vernova.
What we did
- Buy of CDNS, 2.3068 shares at $325.96 at the open. Why: Third-quarter results beat expectations and management raised its full-year outlook. Open a modest position based on reported operating performance rather than sector price momentum, while retaining cash for uncertainty around AI infrastructure financing.
- Exit checks against our own stated exit conditions: 17 intact (PLTR, NVDA, TSM, GOOG, NOW, SNOW, AMD, ASML, AMZN, SHOP, CDNS, META, DDOG, AAPL, MSFT, QCOM, MNDY).
Review
Portfolio value $25,266.92 (-2.7% since inception, +1.0% today), cash 8.8% of NAV. Benchmarks since inception: SPY -1.1%, QQQ -4.0%, DIA +1.4%, IWM +0.4%, URTH -0.7%, ACWI -1.4%, VGK +1.2%, EEM -6.4%, SMH -7.5%, AIQ -4.4%.
Beating 4 of 10 indexes since inception.
Open positions against their thesis:
- PLTR: -4.9% vs cost, 17.0% of NAV; exit if: company results show contracting commercial revenue or management cuts guidance because enterprise AI demand weakens.
- NVDA: -5.0% vs cost, 11.6% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because AI infrastructure customers cancel or defer orders.
- TSM: +3.6% vs cost, 11.6% of NAV; exit if: TSM cuts its current-quarter guidance or reports a material deterioration in AI-related demand.
- GOOG: -8.9% vs cost, 9.1% of NAV; exit if: enterprise Gemini adoption contracts or management reports material AI-driven erosion of its core business.
- NOW: +4.4% vs cost, 7.2% of NAV; exit if: subsequent results show declining enterprise adoption or management cuts guidance because AI products fail to convert into revenue.
- SNOW: -3.0% vs cost, 5.6% of NAV; exit if: management cuts product revenue guidance because customer consumption or enterprise adoption weakens.
- AMD: -1.1% vs cost, 5.5% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its AI-chip revenue outlook because customers cancel orders or choose competing products.
- ASML: -0.9% vs cost, 5.4% of NAV; exit if: management reduces capacity expansion plans or guidance because advanced-chip equipment demand materially deteriorates.
- AMZN: -3.6% vs cost, 4.9% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud revenue outlook because enterprise demand or AI workload growth materially weakens.
- SHOP: -4.5% vs cost, 3.5% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its growth outlook because merchant demand weakens, or reports contracting merchant activity.
- CDNS: +5.3% vs cost, 3.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because chip-design customer spending or demand weakens.
- META: -13.7% vs cost, 2.4% of NAV; exit if: management reports sustained deterioration in operating profitability attributable to AI spending without corresponding revenue gains.
- DDOG: -4.2% vs cost, 1.6% of NAV; exit if: results show declining enterprise customer adoption or management cuts revenue guidance because usage weakens.
- AAPL: +3.1% vs cost, 1.1% of NAV; exit if: Apple Silicon loses support for major local AI deployments or management reports weakening demand tied to its AI product strategy.
- MSFT: -0.7% vs cost, 0.9% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud outlook because AI demand disappoints or reports sustained deterioration in AI-service adoption.
- QCOM: +4.9% vs cost, 0.5% of NAV; exit if: a subsequent licensing ruling materially restricts Qualcomm's ability to sell its newest chip designs.
- MNDY: +12.0% vs cost, 0.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because enterprise customer adoption or retention deteriorates.
Closed trades in the last 30 days:
- 2026-10-23: SELL IONQ, 7.584106 shares, realized -$68.03.
Not investment advice.