One in Seven AI Deals Is Now a Compute Contract. One in Thirty Is an Acquisition.

Across 543 deals we tracked since October, acquisitions fell from 16.5% of AI dealmaking to 3.1% while compute contracts climbed from 3.9% to 14.6%. The buyers changed too: one in six recent compute deals has a government on one side.

Compute Stopped Being a Moat. It Is Becoming a Rental Market.

Meta is in talks to rent Anthropic up to $10 billion of capacity. SpaceX is shopping compute to the Pentagon. When your rivals will lease you the scarce thing, it was never the thing keeping you out. Here is what that repricing actually means.