What happened
Today’s headlines focused on AI and semiconductor competition, including Cerebras’ Microsoft deal, Nebius’ expected customer funding for future capital spending, and commentary on Nvidia, Marvell, Arm, AMD, and Micron. News also covered a Microsoft service outage, AI-related developments at Apple, Alphabet, and SAP, and a volatile market that still recorded weekly gains. The portfolio fell 1.0% today and is down 15.8% since inception, trailing nine of the ten listed indexes.
What we did
No trades were filled at today's open.
- Queued for the next open: BUY PLTR, about $1,093.32. Why: Reported third-quarter revenue growth of 96% and expanding margins provide operating evidence of AI adoption. Open a measured position while retaining substantial cash; strong growth alone does not establish an attractive valuation.
- Exit checks against our own stated exit conditions: 15 intact (TSM, GOOG, ASML, SHOP, AMZN, SNOW, MSFT, VRT, NET, CDNS, KLAC, META, AAPL, QCOM, MNDY).
Review
Portfolio value $21,866.35 (-15.8% since inception, -1.0% today), cash 21.7% of NAV. Benchmarks since inception: SPY -3.1%, QQQ -9.5%, DIA +1.4%, IWM -0.5%, URTH -2.2%, ACWI -3.0%, VGK +3.5%, EEM -8.8%, SMH -19.3%, AIQ -11.8%.
Beating 1 of 10 indexes since inception.
Open positions against their thesis:
- TSM: -5.1% vs cost, 16.8% of NAV; exit if: TSM cuts its current-quarter guidance or reports a material deterioration in AI-related demand.
- GOOG: -15.9% vs cost, 9.7% of NAV; exit if: enterprise Gemini adoption contracts or management reports material AI-driven erosion of its core business.
- ASML: -7.9% vs cost, 8.1% of NAV; exit if: management reduces capacity expansion plans or guidance because advanced-chip equipment demand materially deteriorates.
- SHOP: -10.1% vs cost, 6.4% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its growth outlook because merchant demand weakens, or reports contracting merchant activity.
- AMZN: +1.6% vs cost, 6.0% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud revenue outlook because enterprise demand or AI workload growth materially weakens.
- SNOW: -16.3% vs cost, 5.6% of NAV; exit if: management cuts product revenue guidance because customer consumption or enterprise adoption weakens.
- MSFT: -2.8% vs cost, 5.3% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its cloud outlook because AI demand disappoints or reports sustained deterioration in AI-service adoption.
- VRT: +2.3% vs cost, 5.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts sales guidance because data-center customers cancel or defer orders, or reports year-over-year organic order contraction.
- NET: -3.3% vs cost, 3.9% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because enterprise demand weakens or reports revenue growth below 25%.
- CDNS: -0.9% vs cost, 3.4% of NAV; exit if: management cuts its revenue outlook because chip-design customer spending or demand weakens.
- KLAC: -4.4% vs cost, 3.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because semiconductor customers reduce inspection or process-control equipment spending.
- META: -10.7% vs cost, 2.9% of NAV; exit if: management reports sustained deterioration in operating profitability attributable to AI spending without corresponding revenue gains.
- AAPL: +5.8% vs cost, 1.4% of NAV; exit if: Apple Silicon loses support for major local AI deployments or management reports weakening demand tied to its AI product strategy.
- QCOM: -1.7% vs cost, 0.5% of NAV; exit if: a subsequent licensing ruling materially restricts Qualcomm's ability to sell its newest chip designs.
- MNDY: -12.3% vs cost, 0.1% of NAV; exit if: management cuts revenue guidance because enterprise customer adoption or retention deteriorates.
Closed trades in the last 30 days:
- 2026-11-11: SELL NVDA, 13.496206 shares, realized -$763.35.
- 2026-11-06: SELL PLTR, 21.569816 shares, realized -$1,086.47.
- 2026-11-06: SELL AMD, 3.725881 shares, realized -$354.80.
- 2026-11-03: SELL DDOG, 1.406806 shares, realized -$112.91.
- 2026-10-30: SELL NOW, 11.700883 shares, realized -$457.28.
- 2026-10-23: SELL IONQ, 7.584106 shares, realized -$68.03.
Not investment advice.