Ray Dalio warns AI stock boom is entering early bubble phase

Ray Dalio stepping in to publicly call the AI trade an “early bubble” is less about one investor’s view and more about sentiment at the intersection of capital markets and AI. His argument—that AI‑linked stocks have run far ahead of fundamentals, while non‑US equities and gold outperformed in 2025—highlights how much of the current AI race is being underwritten by expectations of future cash flows rather than realised productivity gains. If big allocators start to share his caution, the easy money that has flooded into AI chips, cloud build‑outs and model labs could become more selective. ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/business/ai-boom-is-early-bubble-phase-bridgewater-founder-ray-dalio-says-2026-01-05/))

For the trajectory toward AGI, a cooling in valuations wouldn’t necessarily stop technical progress, but it could reshape who gets funded and on what terms. Hyper‑ambitious, compute‑hungry roadmaps may face tougher scrutiny, while projects with clearer unit economics or enterprise workflows could look more attractive. At the same time, if AI proves more transformative than sceptics expect, today’s “bubble” call may age like early internet pessimism. Either way, the comment is a reminder that AGI isn’t just a research contest—it’s bound to the boom‑bust psychology of global markets, and the availability of cheap capital to fund multi‑year, multi‑billion‑dollar bets.