AI-driven inflation risk flagged as markets ride 2026 tech euphoria

This analysis flips the usual AI macro narrative on its head. Instead of talking about productivity gains taming inflation, investors are warning that the multi‑trillion‑dollar race to build AI data centers could be an inflation engine—pushing up prices for chips, power, and capital just as central banks try to end their rate‑cutting cycles. Deutsche Bank pegs AI data‑center capex at up to $4 trillion by 2030, and strategists argue that the associated energy and component demand could keep inflation above target for years.([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/ai-driven-inflation-is-2026s-most-overlooked-risk-investors-say-2026-01-05/))

For the AGI race, the message is that the cost of chasing ever‑larger models isn’t just borne by tech balance sheets; it propagates into the macro environment that funds those models. If markets start to view AI build‑out as an inflationary force rather than a deflationary one, the cost of capital for hyperscalers and specialized AI players could rise, making mega‑scale projects harder to finance on generous terms. That in turn might slow the most aggressive scaling plans or force labs to favor more efficient architectures over raw parameter count.

It also raises questions about energy policy. If AI data centers contribute materially to power demand and price pressures, they will become political targets, prompting calls for usage caps, green‑power mandates, or new taxes. Those frictions won’t stop frontier research, but they could alter where and how the biggest clusters get built.