AfDB flags $1trn AI growth upside for Africa by 2035

The AfDB‑sponsored analysis puts a big round number—$1 trillion—on something many people in the AI community talk about abstractly: the productivity upside of widespread AI deployment in emerging markets. According to the summary, most of that value would come from a handful of sectors where Africa already has deep labor pools and structural inefficiencies: agriculture, small‑scale retail, light manufacturing, finance and health. ([independent.ng](https://independent.ng/swift-action-needed-to-unlock-ais-1trn-opportunity-for-africa/)) That framing is useful because it forces governments and investors to think concretely about where AI actually moves the needle, not just where it generates headlines.

For the race to AGI, the report is a reminder that compute and model innovation are only half the story. The other half is distribution into real economies—which, in Africa’s case, means solving for data quality, connectivity, skills and trust at the same time. The paper’s emphasis on five “enablers” (data, compute, skills, trust and capital) maps almost one‑to‑one to the constraints AGI labs worry about globally, just expressed through a development lens. If African governments and the AfDB follow through with serious investment in these rails, the continent could become a large testbed for scaled, agentic AI in sectors like agriculture and finance.

Strategically, this also opens a new arena for influence. US, European, Chinese and Gulf players are all vying to supply cloud, chips and platforms for Africa’s digital transformation. Whoever becomes the default provider for these AI productivity gains will lock in long‑term demand for their models and infrastructure, shaping not just economics but norms around safety, surveillance and data governance.