Prediction market gives low odds to U.S. AI regulation by end of 2025

Summary

QuiverQuant highlights trading on Kalshi’s “AI regulation by 2025?” market, which currently prices only about a 6% chance that a U.S. bill regulating AI systems will become law before January 1, 2026. The article notes that despite intense policy debate, volume and open interest on the contract suggest traders still see federal AI-specific legislation as unlikely this year, underscoring the uncertainty and slow pace around formal AI rulemaking in Washington.